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October 14, 2008

Plenary 5: Earthquake Technology: Early Warning & Prediction
This panel will look at the technologies being used internationally to predict warn, and track seismic activity in a way that allows for effective response. After the formal presentations, a moderated roundtable discussion will follow with leaders from the U.S. and abroad.

Moderator: Dr. Thomas Jordan, Executive Director, Southern California Earthquake Center
Mustafa Erdik, Turkey, Presentation
Dr. Thomas Heaton, Director of the Earthquake Engineering Research Laboratory at Caltech
Prof. Hugo Yepes, Quito, Ecuador

Prospects for California Earthquake Warning Systems

by Thomas Heaton

In this presentation, Dr. Heaton will discuss current efforts to develop computerized algorithms that analyze an ongoing earthquake using data from the California Seismic Network. This is collaborative research conducted by Caltech, UCB, and the USGS.

Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Response System

by Mustafa Erdik
Co-author Erdal Safak

As part of the preparations for the future earthquake in Istanbul a Rapid Response and Early Warning system in the metropolitan area is in operation. For the Early Warning system ten strong motion stations were installed as close as possible to the fault zone. Continuous on-line data from these stations via digital radio modem provide early warning for potentially disastrous earthquakes through an early warning algorithm, based on the exceedance of specified threshold time domain amplitude levels (filtered PGA and CAV) is implemented.
For the rapid response system one hundred strong motion accelerometers were placed in the populated areas of the city to constitute a network that will enable early damage assessment and rapid response information after a damaging earthquake through generation of Shake- and Damage-Maps.
Arrays of strong motion and GPS recorders were placed on important structures to monitor the health of these structures after a damaging earthquake.

Lessons to be learned from the Volcanic Early Warning System for Tungurahua Volcano in Ecuador

by Hugo Yepes

Is it possible to warn Quito about incoming hazardous seismic waves if the nearby Quito Fault were to rupture? Is the Quito Fault the only possible source of damaging earthquakes for the city? If not, how would the city deal with “warned” and “unwarned” situations if early warnings were to be issued only for distant earthquakes? What sort of previous understandings or perceptions should the city have before an early warning is issued? If early warnings are understood as a service provided with the concurrence of technological means to notify the city some seconds in advance of the impact of an occurring earthquake, then answers to those questions are very difficult ones. But if early warning is not considered as a service but as a system where the other three equally important links of the early warning chain are risk knowledge, communication and dissemination of understandable warnings to those at risk, and response capability and preparedness to act in place, then an earthquake early warning system for Quito is possible.  Although there is no attempt yet to put in place an EWS for Quito, some very interesting lessons could be learned from the people centered volcanic early warning system that worked for the eruption of Tungurahua Volcano, 120 km South of Quito, in 2006.